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to be related to recurrence and epilepsy. Many studies were done
to determine the predictors of recurrence in both simple and com-
plex febrile seizures. To our knowledge until now there is no pub-
lished data that specially looks for predictors of recurrence after a
Objective To find out clinical and demographical characteristics
of a first CFS and to define the predictors for the recurrent febrile
Methods Prospective survival analysis study was done in chil-
dren with first CFS who visited Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital,
Jakarta, over 14 months periods. The predictors for development
of recurrence were analyzed by SPSS for Windows 11.5 using
Kaplan-Meier test and Cox regression model with a level of signifi-
Results There were 62 subjects completed this study. Male-to-
female ratio was 1.4:1. The mean age at onset was 18.2 months.
Recurrence occurred in 9 subjects (14.5%). Body temperature
between 38-38.5°C (7 of 26 subjects, P=0.02), upper motor neu-
ron type of delayed development (3 of 7 subjects, P=0.03), and
epileptic history in the family (2 of 2 subjects, P<0.05) were asso-
ciated with recurrence in bivariate analysis. In multivariate analy-
sis only body temperature between 38-38.5°C (HR 1.6, 95% CI
1.0;23.9) and epileptic history in the family (HR 16.9, 95% CI
2.8;101.4) were identified as predictors.
Conclusion Low body temperature at the first seizures and epi-
leptic history in the family were independent predictors for the re-
currence after a first CFS
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